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We know that the service will still technically be active, in China, so would tweaking registry settings to trick Messenger into thinking it's running in China be a viable option? Someone will be bound to make a portable patched version eventually.
I don't think that your proposed procedure is sufficient, in addition to that I think that is necessary to mask the IP address with chineses proxies because you have to trick also the Microsoft servers into thinking that MSN is running in China, but it's my supposition.
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Also, something else to consider is, just how widespread will this forced merge be? I'm still running Messenger 2009 (14.0.8117.416), albeit in compatibility mode for Vista SP2 (so I can use it on Windows 7), and under this configuration, I never once got a prompt to update to the 2011 and 2012 versions. I wonder if the update will cover the most recent versions of Messenger only.
Another thing is that, even if it is possible to still run Messenger after March 15, could you still communicate with your Skype-merged contacts? I'm led to believe you would be able to, since even now users who have chosen to migrate their account to Skype are still able to interact with users still on Messenger.
From as I understand, this time the MSN protocol will be killed, and in consequence of this fact MSN Messenger too, but the existing accounts will be maintained with the Skype-merged contacts also after March 15.
Read this link for further informations:
pcworld.com - microsoft-to-close-messenger-and-consolidate-im-service-on-skype.html
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